ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ БАНКРОТСТВА КОМПАНИИ
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Оригинальность работы 93
Аннотация
За последние 50 лет прогнозирование банкротства приобрело большую популярность как среди экономистов, так и среди финансовых аналитиков. В условиях постоянно меняющегося состояния экономики, а также ряда факторов, влияющих на компании, особенно в последние годы, для фирмы стало очень важно обеспечить свою финансовую стабильность. Анализ ключевых работ Altman и Beaver, а также современных Korol и Alaka показывает, что многие виды финансовых соотношений могут быть использованы в качестве предикторов банкротства, однако они значительно отличаются при анализе отдельных отраслей, периодов и стран. В данном исследовании были собраны и проанализированы финансовые данные трех наиболее проблемных с точки зрения количества банкротств отраслей в России: недвижимость, оптовая торговля и строительство, за период 2017-2019 г. для создания отраслевых и «общей» модели, из которых последнее предоставляет в итоге наибольшую прогнозную ценность.
In the past 50 years, forecasting of corporate failure saw an increase in popularity both among economists and enterprises. With an everchanging state of the economy as well as a number of factors affecting companies, especially in recent years, it has become crucial for a firm to ensure its financial stability. An analysis of major previous articles on this topic reveals that many types of financial ratios can be employed as bankruptcy predictors, however, they differ considerably when analyzing separate industries, periods and countries. In this particular research financial data from three of Russia’s most problematic in terms of number of bankruptcies industries: real-estate, wholesale and construction, both bankrupt and non-bankrupt, during the 2017-2019 period was collected and analyzed to create industry-specific models, as well as a universal one, the last one showing the most promising results.
АННОТАЦИЯ ................................................................................................................................3
ВВЕДЕНИЕ ....................................................................................................................................4
1.ОБЗОР ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ .............................................................................................................8
2.ПОСТАНОВКА ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКОГО ВОПРОСА ..................................................17
3.МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ .....................................................................................................................18
4.ДАННЫЕ ..................................................................................................................................22
5.СОЗДАНИЕ МОДЕЛЕЙ .........................................................................................................24
5.1ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТЬ ПО ОПЕРАЦИЯМ С НЕДВИЖИМЫМ ИМУЩЕСТВОМ ....................................24
5.2СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВО ЗДАНИЙ ...................................................................................................29
5.3ОПТОВАЯ ТОРГОВЛЯ ...........................................................................................................34
5.4«ОБЩАЯ» МОДЕЛЬ ..............................................................................................................39
ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ............................................................................................................................44
СПИСОК ИСПОЛЬЗОВАННОЙ ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ....................................................................48
ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ 1 ........................................................................................................................51
ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ 2 ........................................................................................................................52
Список использованной литературы
Нормативные правовые акты
1. Федеральный закон "О несостоятельности (банкротстве)" от 26.10.2002 N 127-ФЗ
Специальная литература
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3. Altman, E.I., 1968. FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY. The Journal of Finance 23, 589–609.
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